Prediction of gestational diabetes in obese pregnant women from the UK Pregnancies Better Eating and Activity (UPBEAT) pilot trial.

To examine the prediction of gestational diabetes in obese women using routine clinical measures and measurement of biomarkers related to insulin resistance in the early second trimester. A total of 117 obese pregnant women participating in a pilot trial of a complex intervention of dietary advice and physical activity were studied. Blood samples were obtained at recruitment (15⁺⁰-17⁺⁶ weeks' gestation) and demographic, clinical history and anthropometric measures recorded. The biomarkers analysed were plasma lipids (HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, triglycerides), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, alanine transaminase, aspartate transaminase, ferritin, fructosamine, insulin, adiponectin, tissue plasminogen activator, interleukin-6, visfatin and leptin. Univariate and logistic regression analyses were performed to determine independent predictors and area under the receiver-operating curve was calculated for the model. Of the 106 participants included in the analysis, 29 (27.4%) developed gestational diabetes. Participants with gestational diabetes were older (P = 0.002), more often of parity ≥ 2, had higher systolic (P = 0.02) and diastolic blood pressure (P = 0.02) and were more likely to be black (P = 0.009). Amongst the blood biomarkers measured, plasma adiponectin alone remained independently associated with gestational diabetes in adjusted models (P = 0.002). The area under the receiver-operating curve for clinical factors alone (0.760) increased significantly (area under the curve 0.834, chi-square statistic (1) = 4.00, P = 0.046) with the addition of adiponectin. A combination of routinely measured clinical factors and adiponectin measured in the early second trimester in obese women may provide a useful approach to the prediction of gestational diabetes. Validation in a large prospective study is required to determine the usefulness of this algorithm in clinical practice.